We love an underdog story here at The Tournament Scout, so today we’re looking at a handful of the lowest-rated teams at the 2026 World Cup, asking the question: can any of them cause an upset?

Knowing where to draw the line between “relatively low-ranked” and “minnows” is a tricky task with 48 teams this year, but if we take the boundary roughly below 44th-placed Tunisia in the rankings, that leaves the following teams, sorted by FIFA World Rankings. 

There are a couple of surprising names in there. Some may be surprised to see Ghana, once hovering around 14th placed in the world, now plumbing the lowly depths of 74th. There may also be some surprise that Qatar, ranked as high as 34th in 2024, now find themselves at 55th and sliding (57th if you look at the live rankings). 

So who of this bunch might have what it takes to make an impression? 

South Africa is one side with potential. In our Group A preview, I say their positive and energetic style of play is capable of unsettling the group, and they could be the cause of a surprise result or two. 

I also think DR Congo could finish and progress from third in their group. They have the potential to grind their way through, which would be a minor upset. 

Ghana could outperform their meagre ranking - I think they might end up grabbing a draw or two and then could possibly nick a win against Panama, which would be huge for their qualification chances. 

I also controversially have Haiti down to beat Scotland. That has not been a popular prediction, and with Scotland firing on all cylinders in their pre-tournament warm-ups it may be less Nostradamus and more Nostril-anus from me. But I stand by the prediction of an upset in that fixture. 

Cape Verde are the other side who have genuine upset potential. I think they will beat Saudi Arabia and finish third in their group, but the gulf in quality to Spain and Uruguay means that anything higher is out of the question. Still, it could be enough to qualify for the Round of 32 as one of the top 8 third placed teams.

Down at the bottom of the pile, I predict Iraq and Jordan to struggle badly. Uzbekistan might find themselves adrift of their group. Saudi Arabia have only a small chance if they can get a result from Uruguay on the break (but I genuinely don’t favour them). 

Then the wildcards somewhere in the middle: New Zealand, Qatar, Bosnia and Curaçao all have potential. Curaçao under Dick Advocaat have managerial pedigree and are a great story coming into this World Cup. It might not be enough, but they’d be a very popular underdog story should they somehow escape the group stages. 

New Zealand, of course, have Chris Wood and he’s deadly in the air.

But here’s what we’re plumping for: 

Group disrupters: possibly South Africa

Might benefit from an upset: DR Congo, Ghana

One-off shock result potential: Haiti, Cape Verde

Will we have got any of this right? We’ll find out soon when the tournament kicks off proper!