by Craig Laycock
Original article:
Group D Preview
USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
World Rankings:
USA 16th
Türkiye 22nd
Australia 27th
Paraguay 40th
GROUP STRENGTH
Group D is ranked 2nd of the 12 groups for average rating
It’s a tough group. No default “heavy hitters” of tournaments past, but no pushovers either. The spread of 16th down to 40th is one of the smaller clusters of world rankings in the tournament.
***
USA
It’s absolutely impossible to think of the World Cup in the USA and not think of Diana Ross blazing a penalty wide while the goal exploded in 1994. For years after that incident, it ran through my head, over and over. Had she practised? Was her choice of footwear incorrect? Or was she merely a victim of the fact that penalties only have a 0.76 xG.
Having researched these questions with a forensic level of detail they absolutely do not deserve, I can provide some answers. Firstly, I can confirm she had practised. Secondary accounts of the incident recall the routine was rehearsed, and Ross was expected to bury it. One report suggests she missed once in practice too. Perhaps that explains why the goal was moved closer.
Secondly, she was wearing high heels. Absolutely unfathomable as a choice on a football field, and if I were her I’d have been pointing to my footwear like David Beckham pointed to the turf after spaffing one over the crossbar against Portugal in 2004.
Finally, the 0.76 xG theory can be dismissed by the evidence that the goal was moved closer than it should have been. My back-of-the-envelope prediction suggests this should have been upwards of 0.98 xG, so Ross has a lot of questions to answer for back in the dressing room.
Diana was singing “I’m Coming Out” as she curled it wide. The ball had somewhere else to be.
Anyway, this is a preview of the USA’s chances at the World Cup, and as host nation I have shown them an enormous amount of disrespect by dedicating the entire initial section of this preview to Diana Ross’s penalty miss. But some things you just can’t shake.
The USA at the 2026 World Cup, then, appear as the highest ranked team in their group. As tournament co-hosts, you would imagine they would harbour some hopes of going relatively deep into the tournament. But a ranking of 16th shows that this is not the USA that regularly snuck into the latter stages some years ago.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino is a shrewd operator and you would hope he can get a tune out of the star-spangled first XI. But some critics are already showing signs of frustration with Pochettino’s tinkering, even in the last month or two, when it comes to picking a settled formation. There’s a lack of cohesion around the game plan and one or two questions about whether the USA can stick the landing at a home world cup in front of an expectant crowd.
Play style:
In theory we can expect to see a USA side that employs a high-press, transitions vertically at speed, and a degree of tactical flexibility underlined by Pochettino’s experience at facing many different threats at Premier League and Champions League level. That said, the flexibility is currently being highlighted by critics as a weakness as the lack of consistency and solidity in the planning is either showing incredible flexibility or the lack of a masterplan.
Expected formation:
Usually a 3-4-2-1 in attack and a 4-2-3-1 in defence, but Pochettino found himself in a spot of hot water after switching to predominantly just a 4-2-3-1 formation, conceding 7 goals in the last pair of friendlies, only scoring 2.
As with many teams at the World Cup this year, they’ll look to win the ball and break with rapid, vertical transitions. Pulisic and Weah will be key to this with their pace. When not on the transition, they’ll employ a patient buildup through central areas.
I’m also a little worried about how coordinated their press is. Other teams at this tournament will manage theirs better unless the USA have brought significant improvements to the fore.
I think they’ll also struggle to break down teams who sit compact in a low block.
Chances:
It’s a shocking thing to say about the tournament hosts and highest-ranked team in the group, but I actually don’t fancy them that much. I think they could actually struggle to get out of the group, and it might be a bit of a bunfight between 2nd and 3rd places.
***
Paraguay
All the girlies say I’m pretty fly, for a Paraguay. That doesn’t work, but I’m going to pretend it does and move swiftly forwards. For Paraguay are a side that are worthy of consideration. You may be looking at their world ranking and thinking, “nah”. But I’ll counter that with two things. Victory over Brazil and Argentina in qualifying. (1-0, 2-1).
Play style:
Very difficult to break down. Tenacious. Dogged. Rugged. All of the terminology that sounds very, very close to “shithousery” by any average measure. Their aim, rather blatantly, will be to shut down opposition teams, limit space, creativity and chances.
That could lead to a sapping of the group’s entertainment factor somewhat, but it might mean that Paraguay can grind out at least one result. Probably a draw. Maybe against the USA, who struggle against teams with these characteristics.
Expected formation:
4-4-2. Of course. They can switch into a 4-2-3-1, but expect two banks of four, solid as you like, compact and tight, sitting in a low block. You’ll hate to see it, but you’ll begrudgingly hand it to them if they can get something over the line. Shithousery against the co-hosts is very, very likely to be on the cards. The crowd will hate it.
Chances:
You know shithouse teams always have a chance at a tournament. Greece at Euro 2004 showed that anything is possible, and Paraguay will have a similar reliance on set pieces. I think they have a chance of actually fighting out of the group via the third placed slot. It’s between them and Australia.
***
Australia
Ah, the land where women glow and men plunder, so I hear. Australia’s return to the World Cup for the sixth consecutive time, hoping to right the wrongs of previous tournament travesties. I still recall Fabio Grosso’s dive in 2006 to knock them out.
This time around, they’re rated as a 500/1 shot of winning the whole tournament. It's not encouraging, is it?
Play style:
Under Tony Popovic, Australia have evolved. No longer tied to their trusty 4-3-3, they play a solid defensive structure to withstand the battery of pressure elite sides might put them under. They’re happy to cede possession and let the opposition come at them with the hope of using wide areas on the break and early balls into the box to unsettle opposition defences on the counter. They use a double pivot in the middle to give them a bedrock of stability in the centre and they’re able to drop deep to support the back line.
Expected formation:
Nowadays quite often 3-4-2-1 or a 5-4-1 in defence. Popovic is a big fan of three at the back transitioning into five at the back out of possession. In attack the wing backs get forward and the two number 10s try to cause havoc between the lines.
They often drop back into a 5-3-2 on the block, or two banks of four.
Chances:
I think they’ll be industrious, but it’s got a hint or two of “cutting their cloth” to the playing personnel available. They do lack individual quality and make up for it with physical prowess. But don’t underestimate their spirit. I think they’ll finish 4th after being out-shithoused to 3rd by Paraguay.
***
Türkiye
Türkiye always seem to show up at tournaments, and quite often get themselves into the latter stages while almost always starting out a bit unfancied. I really like them as a team and I think they have excellent tournament potential once again.
Play style:
They’re organised, smart and can be ruthless in their game plans under Vincenzo Montella. Having watched a few of their games, I can see a core of determination and spirit running through the team that, when paired with Montella’s tactical flexibility and topped off with the physical endurance they show, I think they’re going to surprise a few people.
They’re quick on the counter, and you can expect some great playmaking with extremely technical players like Arda Güler destined to impress.
Expected formation:
Typically you’ll see Türkiye line up in a 4-2-3-1, but they are very tactically flexible, able to switch to a 3-4-3 or 5-4-1 depending on who they’re up against. Already that screams tournament potential.
In possession they’ll typically go into something like a 2-3-5 with the fullbacks charging forward and trying to pin the opposition back in their own half. They typically have a midfielder drop back and support the build up by slotting in with the centre backs, giving the fullbacks licence to rampage forwards. They’re also physical and well-rounded pressers of the ball. There’s a lot to like about them.
Chances:
I really rate them. They’re going to win the group in my opinion, and I actually consider them a very decent dark horse for the latter stages of the tournament.
The Tournament Scout’s Prediction
Türkiye win the group
USA and Paraguay fight for 2nd/3rd
Australia out
20 min read
Group D Preview: Hosts watch out, Türkiye are coming for you
Australia vege-mite not make it
20 min read
Group D Preview
USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
World Rankings:
USA 16th
Türkiye 22nd
Australia 27th
Paraguay 40th
GROUP STRENGTH
Group D is ranked 2nd of the 12 groups for average rating
It’s a tough group. No default “heavy hitters” of tournaments past, but no pushovers either. The spread of 16th down to 40th is one of the smaller clusters of world rankings in the tournament.
***
USA
It’s absolutely impossible to think of the World Cup in the USA and not think of Diana Ross blazing a penalty wide while the goal exploded in 1994. For years after that incident, it ran through my head, over and over. Had she practised? Was her choice of footwear incorrect? Or was she merely a victim of the fact that penalties only have a 0.76 xG.
Having researched these questions with a forensic level of detail they absolutely do not deserve, I can provide some answers. Firstly, I can confirm she had practised. Secondary accounts of the incident recall the routine was rehearsed, and Ross was expected to bury it. One report suggests she missed once in practice too. Perhaps that explains why the goal was moved closer.
Secondly, she was wearing high heels. Absolutely unfathomable as a choice on a football field, and if I were her I’d have been pointing to my footwear like David Beckham pointed to the turf after spaffing one over the crossbar against Portugal in 2004.
Finally, the 0.76 xG theory can be dismissed by the evidence that the goal was moved closer than it should have been. My back-of-the-envelope prediction suggests this should have been upwards of 0.98 xG, so Ross has a lot of questions to answer for back in the dressing room.
Diana was singing “I’m Coming Out” as she curled it wide. The ball had somewhere else to be.
Anyway, this is a preview of the USA’s chances at the World Cup, and as host nation I have shown them an enormous amount of disrespect by dedicating the entire initial section of this preview to Diana Ross’s penalty miss. But some things you just can’t shake.
The USA at the 2026 World Cup, then, appear as the highest ranked team in their group. As tournament co-hosts, you would imagine they would harbour some hopes of going relatively deep into the tournament. But a ranking of 16th shows that this is not the USA that regularly snuck into the latter stages some years ago.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino is a shrewd operator and you would hope he can get a tune out of the star-spangled first XI. But some critics are already showing signs of frustration with Pochettino’s tinkering, even in the last month or two, when it comes to picking a settled formation. There’s a lack of cohesion around the game plan and one or two questions about whether the USA can stick the landing at a home world cup in front of an expectant crowd.
Play style:
In theory we can expect to see a USA side that employs a high-press, transitions vertically at speed, and a degree of tactical flexibility underlined by Pochettino’s experience at facing many different threats at Premier League and Champions League level. That said, the flexibility is currently being highlighted by critics as a weakness as the lack of consistency and solidity in the planning is either showing incredible flexibility or the lack of a masterplan.
Expected formation:
Usually a 3-4-2-1 in attack and a 4-2-3-1 in defence, but Pochettino found himself in a spot of hot water after switching to predominantly just a 4-2-3-1 formation, conceding 7 goals in the last pair of friendlies, only scoring 2.
As with many teams at the World Cup this year, they’ll look to win the ball and break with rapid, vertical transitions. Pulisic and Weah will be key to this with their pace. When not on the transition, they’ll employ a patient buildup through central areas.
I’m also a little worried about how coordinated their press is. Other teams at this tournament will manage theirs better unless the USA have brought significant improvements to the fore.
I think they’ll also struggle to break down teams who sit compact in a low block.
Chances:
It’s a shocking thing to say about the tournament hosts and highest-ranked team in the group, but I actually don’t fancy them that much. I think they could actually struggle to get out of the group, and it might be a bit of a bunfight between 2nd and 3rd places.
***
Paraguay
All the girlies say I’m pretty fly, for a Paraguay. That doesn’t work, but I’m going to pretend it does and move swiftly forwards. For Paraguay are a side that are worthy of consideration. You may be looking at their world ranking and thinking, “nah”. But I’ll counter that with two things. Victory over Brazil and Argentina in qualifying. (1-0, 2-1).
Play style:
Very difficult to break down. Tenacious. Dogged. Rugged. All of the terminology that sounds very, very close to “shithousery” by any average measure. Their aim, rather blatantly, will be to shut down opposition teams, limit space, creativity and chances.
That could lead to a sapping of the group’s entertainment factor somewhat, but it might mean that Paraguay can grind out at least one result. Probably a draw. Maybe against the USA, who struggle against teams with these characteristics.
Expected formation:
4-4-2. Of course. They can switch into a 4-2-3-1, but expect two banks of four, solid as you like, compact and tight, sitting in a low block. You’ll hate to see it, but you’ll begrudgingly hand it to them if they can get something over the line. Shithousery against the co-hosts is very, very likely to be on the cards. The crowd will hate it.
Chances:
You know shithouse teams always have a chance at a tournament. Greece at Euro 2004 showed that anything is possible, and Paraguay will have a similar reliance on set pieces. I think they have a chance of actually fighting out of the group via the third placed slot. It’s between them and Australia.
***
Australia
Ah, the land where women glow and men plunder, so I hear. Australia’s return to the World Cup for the sixth consecutive time, hoping to right the wrongs of previous tournament travesties. I still recall Fabio Grosso’s dive in 2006 to knock them out.
This time around, they’re rated as a 500/1 shot of winning the whole tournament. It's not encouraging, is it?
Play style:
Under Tony Popovic, Australia have evolved. No longer tied to their trusty 4-3-3, they play a solid defensive structure to withstand the battery of pressure elite sides might put them under. They’re happy to cede possession and let the opposition come at them with the hope of using wide areas on the break and early balls into the box to unsettle opposition defences on the counter. They use a double pivot in the middle to give them a bedrock of stability in the centre and they’re able to drop deep to support the back line.
Expected formation:
Nowadays quite often 3-4-2-1 or a 5-4-1 in defence. Popovic is a big fan of three at the back transitioning into five at the back out of possession. In attack the wing backs get forward and the two number 10s try to cause havoc between the lines.
They often drop back into a 5-3-2 on the block, or two banks of four.
Chances:
I think they’ll be industrious, but it’s got a hint or two of “cutting their cloth” to the playing personnel available. They do lack individual quality and make up for it with physical prowess. But don’t underestimate their spirit. I think they’ll finish 4th after being out-shithoused to 3rd by Paraguay.
***
Türkiye
Türkiye always seem to show up at tournaments, and quite often get themselves into the latter stages while almost always starting out a bit unfancied. I really like them as a team and I think they have excellent tournament potential once again.
Play style:
They’re organised, smart and can be ruthless in their game plans under Vincenzo Montella. Having watched a few of their games, I can see a core of determination and spirit running through the team that, when paired with Montella’s tactical flexibility and topped off with the physical endurance they show, I think they’re going to surprise a few people.
They’re quick on the counter, and you can expect some great playmaking with extremely technical players like Arda Güler destined to impress.
Expected formation:
Typically you’ll see Türkiye line up in a 4-2-3-1, but they are very tactically flexible, able to switch to a 3-4-3 or 5-4-1 depending on who they’re up against. Already that screams tournament potential.
In possession they’ll typically go into something like a 2-3-5 with the fullbacks charging forward and trying to pin the opposition back in their own half. They typically have a midfielder drop back and support the build up by slotting in with the centre backs, giving the fullbacks licence to rampage forwards. They’re also physical and well-rounded pressers of the ball. There’s a lot to like about them.
Chances:
I really rate them. They’re going to win the group in my opinion, and I actually consider them a very decent dark horse for the latter stages of the tournament.
The Tournament Scout’s Prediction
Türkiye win the group
USA and Paraguay fight for 2nd/3rd
Australia out
Group D Preview: Hosts watch out, Türkiye are coming for you
Australia vege-mite not make it
Original article:
Last updated:
Group D Preview
USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
World Rankings:
USA 16th
Türkiye 22nd
Australia 27th
Paraguay 40th
GROUP STRENGTH
Group D is ranked 2nd of the 12 groups for average rating
It’s a tough group. No default “heavy hitters” of tournaments past, but no pushovers either. The spread of 16th down to 40th is one of the smaller clusters of world rankings in the tournament.
***
USA
It’s absolutely impossible to think of the World Cup in the USA and not think of Diana Ross blazing a penalty wide while the goal exploded in 1994. For years after that incident, it ran through my head, over and over. Had she practised? Was her choice of footwear incorrect? Or was she merely a victim of the fact that penalties only have a 0.76 xG.
Having researched these questions with a forensic level of detail they absolutely do not deserve, I can provide some answers. Firstly, I can confirm she had practised. Secondary accounts of the incident recall the routine was rehearsed, and Ross was expected to bury it. One report suggests she missed once in practice too. Perhaps that explains why the goal was moved closer.
Secondly, she was wearing high heels. Absolutely unfathomable as a choice on a football field, and if I were her I’d have been pointing to my footwear like David Beckham pointed to the turf after spaffing one over the crossbar against Portugal in 2004.
Finally, the 0.76 xG theory can be dismissed by the evidence that the goal was moved closer than it should have been. My back-of-the-envelope prediction suggests this should have been upwards of 0.98 xG, so Ross has a lot of questions to answer for back in the dressing room.
Diana was singing “I’m Coming Out” as she curled it wide. The ball had somewhere else to be.
Anyway, this is a preview of the USA’s chances at the World Cup, and as host nation I have shown them an enormous amount of disrespect by dedicating the entire initial section of this preview to Diana Ross’s penalty miss. But some things you just can’t shake.
The USA at the 2026 World Cup, then, appear as the highest ranked team in their group. As tournament co-hosts, you would imagine they would harbour some hopes of going relatively deep into the tournament. But a ranking of 16th shows that this is not the USA that regularly snuck into the latter stages some years ago.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino is a shrewd operator and you would hope he can get a tune out of the star-spangled first XI. But some critics are already showing signs of frustration with Pochettino’s tinkering, even in the last month or two, when it comes to picking a settled formation. There’s a lack of cohesion around the game plan and one or two questions about whether the USA can stick the landing at a home world cup in front of an expectant crowd.
Play style:
In theory we can expect to see a USA side that employs a high-press, transitions vertically at speed, and a degree of tactical flexibility underlined by Pochettino’s experience at facing many different threats at Premier League and Champions League level. That said, the flexibility is currently being highlighted by critics as a weakness as the lack of consistency and solidity in the planning is either showing incredible flexibility or the lack of a masterplan.
Expected formation:
Usually a 3-4-2-1 in attack and a 4-2-3-1 in defence, but Pochettino found himself in a spot of hot water after switching to predominantly just a 4-2-3-1 formation, conceding 7 goals in the last pair of friendlies, only scoring 2.
As with many teams at the World Cup this year, they’ll look to win the ball and break with rapid, vertical transitions. Pulisic and Weah will be key to this with their pace. When not on the transition, they’ll employ a patient buildup through central areas.
I’m also a little worried about how coordinated their press is. Other teams at this tournament will manage theirs better unless the USA have brought significant improvements to the fore.
I think they’ll also struggle to break down teams who sit compact in a low block.
Chances:
It’s a shocking thing to say about the tournament hosts and highest-ranked team in the group, but I actually don’t fancy them that much. I think they could actually struggle to get out of the group, and it might be a bit of a bunfight between 2nd and 3rd places.
***
Paraguay
All the girlies say I’m pretty fly, for a Paraguay. That doesn’t work, but I’m going to pretend it does and move swiftly forwards. For Paraguay are a side that are worthy of consideration. You may be looking at their world ranking and thinking, “nah”. But I’ll counter that with two things. Victory over Brazil and Argentina in qualifying. (1-0, 2-1).
Play style:
Very difficult to break down. Tenacious. Dogged. Rugged. All of the terminology that sounds very, very close to “shithousery” by any average measure. Their aim, rather blatantly, will be to shut down opposition teams, limit space, creativity and chances.
That could lead to a sapping of the group’s entertainment factor somewhat, but it might mean that Paraguay can grind out at least one result. Probably a draw. Maybe against the USA, who struggle against teams with these characteristics.
Expected formation:
4-4-2. Of course. They can switch into a 4-2-3-1, but expect two banks of four, solid as you like, compact and tight, sitting in a low block. You’ll hate to see it, but you’ll begrudgingly hand it to them if they can get something over the line. Shithousery against the co-hosts is very, very likely to be on the cards. The crowd will hate it.
Chances:
You know shithouse teams always have a chance at a tournament. Greece at Euro 2004 showed that anything is possible, and Paraguay will have a similar reliance on set pieces. I think they have a chance of actually fighting out of the group via the third placed slot. It’s between them and Australia.
***
Australia
Ah, the land where women glow and men plunder, so I hear. Australia’s return to the World Cup for the sixth consecutive time, hoping to right the wrongs of previous tournament travesties. I still recall Fabio Grosso’s dive in 2006 to knock them out.
This time around, they’re rated as a 500/1 shot of winning the whole tournament. It's not encouraging, is it?
Play style:
Under Tony Popovic, Australia have evolved. No longer tied to their trusty 4-3-3, they play a solid defensive structure to withstand the battery of pressure elite sides might put them under. They’re happy to cede possession and let the opposition come at them with the hope of using wide areas on the break and early balls into the box to unsettle opposition defences on the counter. They use a double pivot in the middle to give them a bedrock of stability in the centre and they’re able to drop deep to support the back line.
Expected formation:
Nowadays quite often 3-4-2-1 or a 5-4-1 in defence. Popovic is a big fan of three at the back transitioning into five at the back out of possession. In attack the wing backs get forward and the two number 10s try to cause havoc between the lines.
They often drop back into a 5-3-2 on the block, or two banks of four.
Chances:
I think they’ll be industrious, but it’s got a hint or two of “cutting their cloth” to the playing personnel available. They do lack individual quality and make up for it with physical prowess. But don’t underestimate their spirit. I think they’ll finish 4th after being out-shithoused to 3rd by Paraguay.
***
Türkiye
Türkiye always seem to show up at tournaments, and quite often get themselves into the latter stages while almost always starting out a bit unfancied. I really like them as a team and I think they have excellent tournament potential once again.
Play style:
They’re organised, smart and can be ruthless in their game plans under Vincenzo Montella. Having watched a few of their games, I can see a core of determination and spirit running through the team that, when paired with Montella’s tactical flexibility and topped off with the physical endurance they show, I think they’re going to surprise a few people.
They’re quick on the counter, and you can expect some great playmaking with extremely technical players like Arda Güler destined to impress.
Expected formation:
Typically you’ll see Türkiye line up in a 4-2-3-1, but they are very tactically flexible, able to switch to a 3-4-3 or 5-4-1 depending on who they’re up against. Already that screams tournament potential.
In possession they’ll typically go into something like a 2-3-5 with the fullbacks charging forward and trying to pin the opposition back in their own half. They typically have a midfielder drop back and support the build up by slotting in with the centre backs, giving the fullbacks licence to rampage forwards. They’re also physical and well-rounded pressers of the ball. There’s a lot to like about them.
Chances:
I really rate them. They’re going to win the group in my opinion, and I actually consider them a very decent dark horse for the latter stages of the tournament.
The Tournament Scout’s Prediction
Türkiye win the group
USA and Paraguay fight for 2nd/3rd
Australia out
20 min read
Group D Preview: Hosts watch out, Türkiye are coming for you
Australia vege-mite not make it
Group D Preview
USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
World Rankings:
USA 16th
Türkiye 22nd
Australia 27th
Paraguay 40th
GROUP STRENGTH
Group D is ranked 2nd of the 12 groups for average rating
It’s a tough group. No default “heavy hitters” of tournaments past, but no pushovers either. The spread of 16th down to 40th is one of the smaller clusters of world rankings in the tournament.
***
USA
It’s absolutely impossible to think of the World Cup in the USA and not think of Diana Ross blazing a penalty wide while the goal exploded in 1994. For years after that incident, it ran through my head, over and over. Had she practised? Was her choice of footwear incorrect? Or was she merely a victim of the fact that penalties only have a 0.76 xG.
Having researched these questions with a forensic level of detail they absolutely do not deserve, I can provide some answers. Firstly, I can confirm she had practised. Secondary accounts of the incident recall the routine was rehearsed, and Ross was expected to bury it. One report suggests she missed once in practice too. Perhaps that explains why the goal was moved closer.
Secondly, she was wearing high heels. Absolutely unfathomable as a choice on a football field, and if I were her I’d have been pointing to my footwear like David Beckham pointed to the turf after spaffing one over the crossbar against Portugal in 2004.
Finally, the 0.76 xG theory can be dismissed by the evidence that the goal was moved closer than it should have been. My back-of-the-envelope prediction suggests this should have been upwards of 0.98 xG, so Ross has a lot of questions to answer for back in the dressing room.
Diana was singing “I’m Coming Out” as she curled it wide. The ball had somewhere else to be.
Anyway, this is a preview of the USA’s chances at the World Cup, and as host nation I have shown them an enormous amount of disrespect by dedicating the entire initial section of this preview to Diana Ross’s penalty miss. But some things you just can’t shake.
The USA at the 2026 World Cup, then, appear as the highest ranked team in their group. As tournament co-hosts, you would imagine they would harbour some hopes of going relatively deep into the tournament. But a ranking of 16th shows that this is not the USA that regularly snuck into the latter stages some years ago.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino is a shrewd operator and you would hope he can get a tune out of the star-spangled first XI. But some critics are already showing signs of frustration with Pochettino’s tinkering, even in the last month or two, when it comes to picking a settled formation. There’s a lack of cohesion around the game plan and one or two questions about whether the USA can stick the landing at a home world cup in front of an expectant crowd.
Play style:
In theory we can expect to see a USA side that employs a high-press, transitions vertically at speed, and a degree of tactical flexibility underlined by Pochettino’s experience at facing many different threats at Premier League and Champions League level. That said, the flexibility is currently being highlighted by critics as a weakness as the lack of consistency and solidity in the planning is either showing incredible flexibility or the lack of a masterplan.
Expected formation:
Usually a 3-4-2-1 in attack and a 4-2-3-1 in defence, but Pochettino found himself in a spot of hot water after switching to predominantly just a 4-2-3-1 formation, conceding 7 goals in the last pair of friendlies, only scoring 2.
As with many teams at the World Cup this year, they’ll look to win the ball and break with rapid, vertical transitions. Pulisic and Weah will be key to this with their pace. When not on the transition, they’ll employ a patient buildup through central areas.
I’m also a little worried about how coordinated their press is. Other teams at this tournament will manage theirs better unless the USA have brought significant improvements to the fore.
I think they’ll also struggle to break down teams who sit compact in a low block.
Chances:
It’s a shocking thing to say about the tournament hosts and highest-ranked team in the group, but I actually don’t fancy them that much. I think they could actually struggle to get out of the group, and it might be a bit of a bunfight between 2nd and 3rd places.
***
Paraguay
All the girlies say I’m pretty fly, for a Paraguay. That doesn’t work, but I’m going to pretend it does and move swiftly forwards. For Paraguay are a side that are worthy of consideration. You may be looking at their world ranking and thinking, “nah”. But I’ll counter that with two things. Victory over Brazil and Argentina in qualifying. (1-0, 2-1).
Play style:
Very difficult to break down. Tenacious. Dogged. Rugged. All of the terminology that sounds very, very close to “shithousery” by any average measure. Their aim, rather blatantly, will be to shut down opposition teams, limit space, creativity and chances.
That could lead to a sapping of the group’s entertainment factor somewhat, but it might mean that Paraguay can grind out at least one result. Probably a draw. Maybe against the USA, who struggle against teams with these characteristics.
Expected formation:
4-4-2. Of course. They can switch into a 4-2-3-1, but expect two banks of four, solid as you like, compact and tight, sitting in a low block. You’ll hate to see it, but you’ll begrudgingly hand it to them if they can get something over the line. Shithousery against the co-hosts is very, very likely to be on the cards. The crowd will hate it.
Chances:
You know shithouse teams always have a chance at a tournament. Greece at Euro 2004 showed that anything is possible, and Paraguay will have a similar reliance on set pieces. I think they have a chance of actually fighting out of the group via the third placed slot. It’s between them and Australia.
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Australia
Ah, the land where women glow and men plunder, so I hear. Australia’s return to the World Cup for the sixth consecutive time, hoping to right the wrongs of previous tournament travesties. I still recall Fabio Grosso’s dive in 2006 to knock them out.
This time around, they’re rated as a 500/1 shot of winning the whole tournament. It's not encouraging, is it?
Play style:
Under Tony Popovic, Australia have evolved. No longer tied to their trusty 4-3-3, they play a solid defensive structure to withstand the battery of pressure elite sides might put them under. They’re happy to cede possession and let the opposition come at them with the hope of using wide areas on the break and early balls into the box to unsettle opposition defences on the counter. They use a double pivot in the middle to give them a bedrock of stability in the centre and they’re able to drop deep to support the back line.
Expected formation:
Nowadays quite often 3-4-2-1 or a 5-4-1 in defence. Popovic is a big fan of three at the back transitioning into five at the back out of possession. In attack the wing backs get forward and the two number 10s try to cause havoc between the lines.
They often drop back into a 5-3-2 on the block, or two banks of four.
Chances:
I think they’ll be industrious, but it’s got a hint or two of “cutting their cloth” to the playing personnel available. They do lack individual quality and make up for it with physical prowess. But don’t underestimate their spirit. I think they’ll finish 4th after being out-shithoused to 3rd by Paraguay.
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Türkiye
Türkiye always seem to show up at tournaments, and quite often get themselves into the latter stages while almost always starting out a bit unfancied. I really like them as a team and I think they have excellent tournament potential once again.
Play style:
They’re organised, smart and can be ruthless in their game plans under Vincenzo Montella. Having watched a few of their games, I can see a core of determination and spirit running through the team that, when paired with Montella’s tactical flexibility and topped off with the physical endurance they show, I think they’re going to surprise a few people.
They’re quick on the counter, and you can expect some great playmaking with extremely technical players like Arda Güler destined to impress.
Expected formation:
Typically you’ll see Türkiye line up in a 4-2-3-1, but they are very tactically flexible, able to switch to a 3-4-3 or 5-4-1 depending on who they’re up against. Already that screams tournament potential.
In possession they’ll typically go into something like a 2-3-5 with the fullbacks charging forward and trying to pin the opposition back in their own half. They typically have a midfielder drop back and support the build up by slotting in with the centre backs, giving the fullbacks licence to rampage forwards. They’re also physical and well-rounded pressers of the ball. There’s a lot to like about them.
Chances:
I really rate them. They’re going to win the group in my opinion, and I actually consider them a very decent dark horse for the latter stages of the tournament.
The Tournament Scout’s Prediction
Türkiye win the group
USA and Paraguay fight for 2nd/3rd
Australia out
20 min read